After 82 games from each of the NBA’s 30 teams, we’re back at the time of the year where legacies are forged, year-long narratives and theories dispelled. It’s playoff time, and this year’s post-season is shaping up to be the most exciting and open in years.
Last year’s playoffs saw Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets team cruise to the title, losing just four games in four series en-route to dismantling the Miami Heat in the finals.
The Heat had its own Cinderella story, coming back from almost being bounced in the NBA’s play-in tournament to make one of the most unlikely trips to the finals from the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Prior to Jokic’s win there were the usual conversations that surround a superstar who reaches that stage of their careers where the individual accolades begin to outweigh the team accolades. Does this guy have the killer mentality? Can you win with him as the best player? Does he have enough pieces?
Jokic and the Nuggets passed every test with aplomb, and now the only question is whether they can repeat. But this year they face a Western Conference that, at least on paper, appears much tougher.
But the reigning champions aren’t the only team facing questions as we gear up for what is shaping to be a post-season for the ages.
Does LeBron have another deep playoff run in him?
The first obstacle in Jokic and Denver’s path to a repeat is the man who continues to give Father Time fits — LeBron James.
At 39, James continues to bend the realms of what we perceive to be possible for an aging athlete. He may no longer be the explosive force that flew into our lives more than two decades ago, but is still capable of a highlight-reel play when the opportunity presents itself.
He has made up for any athleticism he may have lost by replacing it with a level of tactical nous that only comes with playing for as long as he has. James has been playing NBA basketball for longer than some of his younger opponents have been alive, and it shows from time to time.
James and the Los Angeles Lakers’ season thus far has been eerily similar to last year’s run — start out slow, underwhelm, tick into gear following the trade deadline before advancing via the play-in tournament.
Of course, that fairytale run ended at the hands of Jokic and the Nuggets in the conference finals, when the would-be champions booked their ticket to the finals with a 4-0 sweep.
Every time James has looked like he might be a spent force in the NBA over the last half-decade, he’s come back stronger, and he’s done it again this season.
Despite being in his 21st season, James played 71 games, his highest mark since he played all 82 with the Cavs in 2017-18.
He shot a career-high 41 per cent from downtown, a marked improvement from the 32 per cent mark a year ago. Most importantly for the Lakers, that gimpy foot that seemed to hold him back during last year’s playoffs appears to be fully healed.
The 2023-24 season marked the 20th straight season James has averaged over 25 points per game. To put that in perspective, when that streak started Jokic was nine years old.
All of that is great, but it doesn’t mean toppling the defending champs is an easy task. Since sweeping the Lakers last year, the Nuggets won all three games against LA during the regular season, with just one of those coming in Denver, and the games weren’t particularly close.
What may work in the Lakers’ favour is the health of Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, who has only just returned from a knee strain.
Murray torched the Lakers in last year’s series, averaging 32.5 points per game on nearly 53 per cent shooting from the field. That was a version of Murray that was fully healthy and humming. Can the Nuggets survive if he’s only 60-70 per cent of that version? Only time will tell.
The worst place to be on the court is up against James when you’re less than fully healthy. Ask Stephen Curry about the way James and the Cavs mercilessly hunted him during the 2016 finals after he’d returned from an MCL sprain. James, like a chess master, will put Murray in almost every defensive action to scope out just how healthy his knee is.
Like James, All-Star big man Anthony Davis also enjoyed a clean bill of health this season, playing a career-high 76 games in the regular season.
While no single player in the NBA can take out Jokic, who is an offensive hub by himself, there is no player who is better equipped at making his life difficult than Davis, who was back to his destructive best on the defensive end.
Get past Jokic and the Nuggets, and James could potentially face Kevin Durant in the next round. Such is life in the Western Conference. But if the Lakers are able to take out the reigning champs in the opening round, you’d be a brave person to bet against them the rest of the way.
What Aussies are most likely to influence the title?
The first player that comes to mind when you think of Aussies in prime position to claim a title this year is Josh Giddey, given he is a starting guard on the top seed in the Western Conference, but more on him later.
One of the most red-hot teams coming into the playoffs is the Dallas Mavericks, who own the fourth-best record after the All-Star break, after going 18-9 to finish the season.
After stumbling out of the gates in the first few months of the season (they were 26-22), the Mavericks got on a roll in February and March, going 19-7 in those two months to rise from out of the play-in to almost securing home court in the first round.
Forgotten Aussie guard Dante Exum, who was signed last July after spending two seasons playing in Europe, proved to be a savvy acquisition and fit in seamlessly alongside Mavericks stars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Despite not being known as a shooter, Exum knocked down 49 per cent of his threes this season, including a scorching-hot 59 per cent mark in March when Dallas went 11-4.
Exum and fellow Australian teammate, Josh Green, proved to be the exact type of low-usage, dogged defenders you need to put around Doncic and Irving.
The two-man line-up of Exum and Green was extremely potent for Dallas all-season long, with the Mavs outscoring opponents by 11 points per 100 possessions when they shared the floor in 205 minutes together.
The pair will be especially crucial in the first round against the LA Clippers in order to stymie the trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden. Get past the Clippers, and the Mavs will back themselves to take down anyone in their path.
Giddey’s season was a mixed bag as he was overtaken by teammates such as Jalen Williams as Chet Holmgren this season and he went from being the second option behind MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to an offensive afterthought at times.
The 21-year-old guard struggled to find his place to start the season, but looked much more like his usual self in the second half. After the All-Star break, Giddey saw upticks in his field goal percentage, three-point percentage, points, rebounds and assists per game.
The 36 per cent mark from distance on 3.2 attempts per game is what would’ve impressed Thunder coach Mark Daigneault the most. Williams and Holmgren’s emergence means Giddey will have the ball in his hands less as they continue to develop, but if he’s able to become an effective floor-spacer, it’ll allow him to stay on the floor in key playoff games.
OKC has been one of the feel-good stories in the NBA this season, 57 wins coming from a team that only last season finished 10th in the Western Conference. But they’ve never been here before, and as history shows, young teams have often been subjected to rude awakenings on their playoff debuts.
Which star is ready to make their playoff breakout?
Every playoff campaign, one of the league’s young players steps up to centre stage and announces himself as a bona-fide superstar.
No-one will ever forget the legendary shootouts in the bubble during the 2020 playoffs between Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray, that signalled their arrival as forces to be reckoned with.
Back in 2007, LeBron James scored 48 points on the road to lift the Cavaliers over the Pistons in a pivotal road game in the Eastern Conference Finals. Seven years later, it was James was on the other end of a playoff breakout as a 22-year-old Kawhi Leonard announced his arrival by winning the Finals MVP award in the 2014 finals. The list goes on.
There is no shortage of young studs making their playoff debuts this time around, with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the pack after averaging 30.1 points per game. But he’s not exactly an unknown commodity, given he finished fifth in MVP voting last year. Everyone expects him to have a big say in the Thunder’s playoff fortunes.
Over in the Eastern Conference, the top pick from the 2022 draft, Paolo Banchero, has led the Orlando Magic to a 47-win season just a year after they finished 13th in the East.
Banchero had an outstanding season and was duly rewarded with the first All-Star appearance of his career after averaging 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game in 80 appearances, all career-high marks.
The Magic have found themselves in a favourable first-round match-up against the stuttering Cleveland Cavaliers, and are a genuine shot to win the series. For them to do so, Banchero will have to do the lion’s share of work on the offensive end on a team that has struggled to score all season long.
Standing at 208cm, Banchero is an awkward defensive assignment for Cleveland, which lacks real wing defensive options. He’s too mobile on the perimeter for the Cavs’ twin-tower pairing of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen and too big for either Max Strus or Isaac Okoro to take the assignment.
While not a LeBron James-level playmaker out of the wing position, Banchero has proven to be an adept passer and he’s going to have to rely heavily on this skill, with the Cavs likely to sag off his teammates in order to double-team where possible. If Banchero is able to take advantage of these opportunities to present the Magic four-on-three advantages elsewhere on the court, it’ll go a long way to resuscitating an offence that has often found itself stuck in the mud.
Banchero has the prototypical do-it-all game that you want out of your star wing, and is a franchise centrepiece that Orlando will look to build around in the coming years.
Who’s going to get a makeover depending on their playoff hopes?
There is no team whose future hinges on this playoff run more than the Magic’s first-round opponents — the Cleveland Cavaliers.
It’s been a steady rebuild for the Cavs since James left in the summer of 2018, but they’ve gone from the feel-good story to having actual expectations now and this is where team-building gets tough.
The Cavs positioned themselves to hit a home run two summers ago when they landed star guard Donovan Mitchell in a blockbuster trade without giving up any of their core pieces after spending a few years building through the draft.
Mitchell’s first season saw an instant uptick in the Cavs’ fortunes, with the franchise recording its first 50-win season without James since they went 54-28 in the 1992-93 season.
Unfortunately, the Cavs faceplanted in last year’s playoffs and were beaten 4-1 by the New York Knicks despite having homecourt advantage in the first round, prompting major questions about the team’s make-up.
The loss to the Knicks exposed a lot of Cleveland’s weaknesses, ones that they haven’t exactly totally fixed this season. There are still significant questions over whether Mitchell and Darius Garland are a backcourt tandem that can provide post-season success, given their lack of size.
Can Mobley and Allen play together in an era where playing two bigs together in the post-season is fraught with danger?
Hovering over all of this is Mitchell’s pending free agency at the end of next season. At 27 years old, Mitchell is in the prime age where star players expect to be competing for championships, and this post-season will tell him a lot about whether Garland, Mobley and Allen are the running mates he needs alongside him to eventually win a title.
Garland and Allen were coming off All-Star seasons when the Cavs traded for Mitchell. Given Mobley was widely seen as a future All-Star himself, the Cavs were seen as having four All-Stars on their team with the addition of Mitchell. However, the fact that none of the existing Cavs have been named an All-Star in Mitchell’s two seasons in Cleveland perhaps explains why the team hasn’t yet reached the heights many expected.
Regardless of what happens in the playoffs, Mitchell will be presented with a monster extension offer by the Cavs this summer. If he doesn’t take it, the team could choose to trade him in order to get a bounty of picks and young players back in return instead of risking him walking as a free agent next summer. If this happens, there are a number of teams that will line up to present the Cavs with some tantalising trade packages.
Last year’s playoff exit also raised major questions about whether JB Bickerstaff is the right head coach for this group. Another playoff no-show is all but certain to see him shown the door.
Is there anyone in the East, or the NBA, that can take out Boston?
On paper, the Boston Celtics should walk to this year’s title.
Boston’s 64 wins were seven more than any other team in the entire league. To put that in perspective, when the Golden State Warriors won an NBA-record 73 games during the 2015-16 regular season, they were only six games ahead of the next-best team.
After being shocked by the Miami Heat in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics responded by putting together an all-time dominant NBA season.
The Celtics finished the season by outscoring their opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-highest mark in league history behind only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, the 1996-97 Bulls and the 2016-17 Warriors. Each of those teams won the title.
Statistically, this Boston team has the best offence in the history of the league, scoring 123.2 points per 100 possessions this season. The next best team is the 2020-21 Utah Jazz, who won 52 of 72 games in a COVID-shortened regular season.
The Celtics responded to last year’s playoff disappointment by adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in the summer, and both have been revelations.
Boston has built its dominance on the back of its starting five featuring Holiday, Porzingis, Derrick White and All-Star duo Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, with this five-man unit outscoring teams by 11 points per 100 possessions this season. The line-up presents a combination of playmaking, scoring and defence that is the envy of the rest of the competition.
After making it to the finals two years ago, it would be a major disappointment if the Celtics aren’t able to make it out of the East yet again. In the first round, Boston faces Miami, a team that has given them post-season fits over the past four years, but it’s a Heat team that is without Jimmy Butler.
Elsewhere in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers are the two teams that are considered the biggest threats to Boston, but both teams have their best players — Giannis Antentokounmpo and Joel Embiid — hobbled going into the post-season.
Despite being the third seed in the Western Conference, the reigning champions Denver loom as the team Celtics fans will not want to face. While Boston has added size in Porzingis, and has two of the best guard defenders in Holiday and White, stopping the Nuggets’ lethal two-man game of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic has proved problematic.
Denver took out the season series 2-0 against Boston this year, with both games going down to the wire.
One Achilles heel for Boston remains its offence when games get tight, with seven of their 18 losses this season coming in games decided by three points or less. If they find themselves in a series against Denver, the Nuggets will back themselves to out-execute Boston down the stretch when games get tight.
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