Australia’s job market is defying economic headwinds, with an anticipated surge in employment numbers set to outpace previous forecasts.

The latest data from Treasury paints a robust picture, projecting nearly 14.4 million Australians to be employed by mid-year, reflecting a notable increase of 105,000 from earlier estimates.

This unexpected growth underscores the resilience of the nation’s employment sector amidst a broader economic slowdown.

The upward trajectory in job creation, pegged at a 2.25% rise in the year leading to June, signals a positive trend in absorbing the influx of international arrivals. This influx, while contributing to the expansion of the labor force, also poses challenges and opportunities for policymakers and economists alike.

The surge surpassed projections outlined in the mid-year economic outlook, released in December. This forecast anticipated total employment reaching 14.3 million during the same period, representing a 1.5% increase.

Additionally, the budget papers indicated a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, expected to reach 4.3% by the June quarter of 2025, compared to the current rate of 3.8%. This forecast is lower than the previous year’s budget prediction of 4.5%.

According to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, the robust employment data, empowering workers to negotiate for higher wages, poses a risk of further solidifying persistent inflationary pressures.

“When the unemployment rate remains low, hovering around levels the Reserve Bank considers indicative of full employment, there’s a heightened risk of inflation,” Dr. Oliver remarked.

He further emphasised that the federal budget should be cautious not to spur excessive growth that could counteract the Reserve Bank’s measures to curb inflation.

“This situation places additional pressure on the budget to prioritize economic restraint over injecting further stimulus,” he concluded.