Carlton and Geelong are poised to surge into September, while Essendon must survive a nightmare run to fulfil its finals dream as the fixture for the final months of the season is locked in.
On Tuesday afternoon the AFL confirmed the fixture for Rounds 16 to 23, while the Round 24 finale will be locked in closer to the time, allowing the league to maximise pre-finals intrigue.
The Blues have the easiest last nine games of any team, according to Foxfooty.com.au’s analysis, which is based on the average percentage of their opponents in those fixtures.
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While Michael Voss’ men will battle contenders GWS (Engie), Port Adelaide (Marvel) and Collingwood (MCG) plus a Bulldogs side with a very strong percentage (Marvel), they also get very winnable games against Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Marvel), Hawthorn (MCG), West Coast (Optus) and St Kilda (Marvel) – the latter three games ending the season.
The Cats, with the second-easiest draw, have four games at the Cattery including visits by Hawthorn and West Coast, plus games against North Melbourne (Hobart) and St Kilda (Marvel).
The Blues and Cats are the only true contenders in the group of six easiest fixtures.
In contrast the Bombers, who have a relatively easy run into the bye weeks, will want to bank their wins early. They face four current top-eight teams in their last nine games but also dangerous sides outside the eight like Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast and Brisbane; though on the plus side they have just one game (Round 24 vs Brisbane) interstate.
The draw is also commercially favourable with plenty of primetime fixtures.
Adelaide and Brisbane’s slow starts to the year are compounded by their difficult draws to end the season, ranking second and fourth-hardest, while Port Adelaide – after passing a big test against Geelong last Friday night – will need to pass even more of them with the third-toughest run.
WHO HAS THE HARDEST RUN HOME?
1. Essendon (113.2%)
2. Adelaide Crows (111.6%)
3. Port Adelaide (109.4%)
4. Brisbane Lions (108.3%)
5. Western Bulldogs (105.9%)
6. Collingwood (105.9%)
7. North Melbourne (105.8%)
8. Melbourne (105.6%)
9. Fremantle (104.7%)
10. St Kilda (103.8%)
11. GWS Giants (101.5%)
12. Sydney Swans (100.7%)
13. West Coast Eagles (99.9%)
14. Richmond (99.4%)
15. Hawthorn (96.3%)
16. Gold Coast Suns (94.9%)
17. Geelong (93.6%)
18. Carlton (92.3%)
Based on average percentage of opponents across Rounds 16-24
See the full Rounds 16-23 fixture below.
AFL FIXTURE (Rounds 16-23, all times AEST)
Broadcasters listed are for Victoria
Round 16
Friday June 28
Brisbane Lions v Melbourne, Gabba, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday June 29
Sydney Swans v Fremantle, SCG, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood, People First Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)
Geelong v Essendon, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Sunday June 30
St Kilda v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)
Round 17
Friday July 5
Collingwood v Essendon, MCG, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday July 6
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
North Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Geelong v Hawthorn, GMHBA Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
GWS Giants v Carlton, ENGIE Stadium, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Fremantle v Richmond, Optus Stadium, 8:10pm (Foxtel)
Sunday July 7
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, MCG, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
St Kilda v Sydney Swans, Marvel Stadium, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows, Gabba, 4:10pm (Foxtel)
Round 18
Friday July 12
Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday July 13
Sydney Swans v North Melbourne, SCG, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Hawthorn v Fremantle, UTAS Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)
Melbourne v Essendon, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Sunday July 14
Gold Coast Suns v Port Adelaide, People First Stadium, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Richmond v GWS Giants, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions, Optus Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)
Round 19
Friday July 19
Essendon v Adelaide Crows, Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday July 20
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
GWS Giants v Gold Coast Suns, ENGIE Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Geelong v Western Bulldogs, GMHBA Stadium, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)
Sunday July 21
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans, Gabba, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Fremantle v Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Carlton v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)
Round 20
Friday July 26 (Paris Olympics begin)
Carlton v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday July 27
North Melbourne v Geelong, Blundstone Arena, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
St Kilda v Essendon, Marvel Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions, People First Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Melbourne v GWS Giants, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Fremantle v West Coast Eagles, Optus Stadium, 8:10pm (Foxtel)
Sunday July 28
Collingwood v Richmond, MCG, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs, SCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, 4:10pm (Foxtel)
Round 21
Friday August 2
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 7:15pm (Foxtel/Seven)
West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns, Optus Stadium, 8:30pm (Foxtel)
Saturday August 3
North Melbourne v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Geelong v Adelaide Crows, GMHBA Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)
Collingwood v Carlton, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Sunday August 4
GWS Giants v Hawthorn, Manuka Oval, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Essendon v Fremantle, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
St Kilda v Brisbane Lions, Marvel Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)
Round 22
Friday August 9
Sydney Swans v Collingwood, SCG, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday August 10
North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, Blundstone Arena, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Brisbane Lions v GWS Giants, Gabba, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Fremantle v Geelong, Optus Stadium, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
Melbourne v Port Adelaide, MCG, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Essendon v Gold Coast Suns, Marvel, 7:30pm (Foxtel)
Sunday August 11
Carlton v Hawthorn, MCG, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Richmond v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 4:10pm (Foxtel)
Round 23
Friday August 16
Essendon v Sydney Swans, Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Saturday August 17
Gold Coast Suns v Melbourne, Heritage Bank Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
GWS Giants v Fremantle, ENGIE Stadium, 1:45pm (Foxtel)
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions, MCG, 4:35pm (Foxtel)
St Kilda v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 7:30pm (Foxtel/Seven)
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm (Foxtel)
Sunday August 18
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 1:10pm (Foxtel)
Hawthorn v Richmond, MCG, 3:20pm (Foxtel/Seven)
West Coast Eagles v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 4:40pm (Foxtel)
Round 24
Dates TBC
Brisbane Lions v Essendon, Gabba
Carlton v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium
Geelong v West Coast Eagles, GMHBA Stadium
Hawthorn v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium
Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG
Richmond v Gold Coast Suns, MCG
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows, SCG
Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants, Mars Stadium