Home » PGA Championship 2024 betting tips: Our PGA pro’s 10 rules for making money this week – Australian Golf Digest

PGA Championship 2024 betting tips: Our PGA pro’s 10 rules for making money this week – Australian Golf Digest

LOUISVILLE — We’ve seen Valhalla Golf Club only three times for major championships, but from the first in 1996 when Mark Brooks beat Kenny Penny to 2024, the club has added 465 yards and turned a par 5 into a par 4. Today, the scorecard is a 7,609-yard par 71. This is big-boy golf on the highest level.

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There are a ton more details worth a deeper look ahead of the 106th PGA Championship on Thursday. It has been 10 years since we have seen this mythological venue, so what better way to get reacquainted than with Read The Line’s weekly 10 Things with Golf Digest.

1. We can begin by re-emphasizing the opening theme of distance. Tiger Woods was the longest player in the field when he won at Valhalla in 2000. The same holds true for Rory McIlroy in 2014. If all you wish to feature is length, then start with Bryson DeChambeau (+2800). Fresh off a sixth-place result at Augusta National last month, and a fourth-place finish at Oak Hill a year ago, the brawny Bryson is this edition’s Louisville slugger.

2. Watch out for the weather this week. If you are coming to Kentucky pack an umbrella. The region has received over two inches of rain before the championship has started. It poured Tuesday, and the forecast calls for a chance of rain each day with Friday being the worst. When you build that betting card, place a strong emphasis on accuracy from long range. With all of this rain, the closer you can land it to your target, the better, as the greens will be soft. Who leads proximity to the hole on approaches over 200 yards? Well, it is not Scottie Scheffler. Xander Schauffele (+1600) does. The player who already has eight top 10s this season!

3. I took a deep dive on the top 10 (12 players with ties) from the 2014 edition. To my surprise, strokes gained/off the tee wasn’t the lead category of the primary four—putting was. Seven of the top-10 finishers ranked inside the top 12 for strokes gained putting that week. If you’re looking for great putting value on the betting board, look no further than Wyndham Clark (+4500), Sahith Theegala (+6600), and Denny McCarthy (+125000).

RELATED: Tee times and pairings for every player in the 2024 PGA Championship

4. The last two past champs were the best players and betting favorites in the championship. The chalk leader this week is new dad Scottie Scheffler (+450). Can Scheffler continue the grand slam talk? The last time we saw a player win the first two majors of the season was Jordan Spieth (+7000) in 2015.

5. Valhalla leadership made significant changes to the course in preparation for this major championship. Check out the full GCSAA renovation report here. The most significant is the switch in fairway grass. Zeon Zoysia now covers the landing areas from tee to green. It’s great for multiple reasons, but the best is this blade’s ability to filter water through. Even with all of the rain, we are still seeing a little bounce and run.

We break down the best and worst value picks in the field for the 2024 PGA Championship:

6. Zoysia is a very specific choice and connects Valhalla to a number of nearby comp courses. Bellerive in St. Louis comes to mind along with TPC Southwind in Memphis. The tour even visits East Lake every year for the Tour Championship. Take a good look at those leaderboards. Let me highlight Bellerive’s top five players from the 2018 PGA Championship (with their betting odds for this week): Brooks Koepka (+1600) won, and Tiger Woods (+42500) finished runner-up. Adam Scott (+12500) in third and tied for fourth were Stewart Cink and Jon Rahm (+1800).

RELATED: PGA Championship DFS picks 2024: Why Brooks Koepka is an easy bet at Valhalla

7. Another excellent comp course is a nearby Jack Nicklaus signature design, Muirfield Village Golf Club. Notable winners there over the past few years are Patrick Cantlay (+4500) twice, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa (+3300), Bryson DeChambeau and Hideki Matsuyama (+7500). MVGC is a better test, and both share so many similarities The Memorial should be a staple of your betting research. Go check Denny McCarthy’s (+125000) recent history there.

8. To summarize the challenge Valhalla presents, this is the third longest course on tour (2024). It also has the third-smallest greens at an average size of 5,000 sq/ft. That is one heck of test!

9. Since the PGA Championship moved to May, the winners have excelled at the Masters one month earlier. 2019 PGA winner Koepka was runner-up at Augusta, in 2020 covid moved Augusta to after the PGA. Phil finished T-21 before winning at Kiawah in 2021, Justin Thomas was T-8 in 2022. Last year, Koepka was again runner-up before he grabbed the Wanamaker trophy. Our winner this week will most like have finished T20 at the Masters in April.

10. All 10 Things cannot cover a field of 156 golfers. The top 70 and ties will play the weekend and compete for the Wanamaker trophy. I have ranked all 156 in my PGA rankings preview article. No surprise Scottie Scheffler is number one, but who comes next? The answer probably is not who you think. Here’s my full breakdown.

Our weekly betting coverage comes to you all week. Published this morning are the Golf Digest Expert Panel’s picks for the PGA Championship. Even the experts don’t see the big board before it comes out. I was very surprised to see a certain name on it multiple times. Make sure you take a look a see who we have all picked.

Looking for more, subscribe to Read The Line.

Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly podcast, “The Loop” (above), where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com