LOUISVILLE — I think the best decision in professional golf came nearly 10 years ago when the PGA of America decided to move their championship from August to May. The first May edition took place in 2019, just one month after Tiger Woods won his fifth green jacket. If that magic moment didn’t heighten the anticipation for Bethpage Black, I can’t imagine what else could? Brooks blew away the field following a runner-up finish to Tiger at Augusta. If Tiger’s win at Augusta wasn’t the best modern major in recent years, then how about the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah when Phil Mickelson won his sixth major at 50 years old?
PGA Championship 2024 power rankings: Our deep dive into every player in the field competing at Valhalla
Entering the next May PGA edition, we have three thoroughbreds ready to run on a Jack Nicklaus track in Louisville. Valhalla Golf Club has seen three previous PGAs. Even though much has changed about the course (over 450 yards have been added since Mark Brooks won in 1996), the season’s second major is perfectly positioned again for an extremely competitive week. Brooks Koepka won his last LIV tournament and looks ready to defend his fifth major title. Rory McIlroy is our defending Valhalla champion from 2014. McIlroy made it two wins in a row when he served up a fourth signature win at Quail Hollow on Sunday.
Brooks, Rory and a field of 153 more professional players are trying to stop Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler enters the week winning four of his last five starts. Anyone who believes he’ll be distracted by the birth of his baby isn’t analyzing this championship through the proper prism. I fully expect Scottie to run hard around this track for four straight days. Who can keep up? Take a look at my PGA Championship player rankings for a complete breakdown of the entire field.
It’s Monday, and the odds board just flipped to championship week. Golf Digest experts Chris Powers and Steve Hennessey joined me on our weekly video (below) with our betting board breakdown. My take on the odds board begins and ends with the ability to stare down Scottie and take the title. Xander Schauffele listed at 16-1 gives me great pause. Those opening odds match three-time PGA winner Brooks Koepka. Even if you don’t really understand the numbers, do you think Brooks and Xander have the same likelihood of winning this week?
We break down the best and worst value picks in the field for the 2024 PGA Championship:
Koepka’s CV contains five major championships. Schauffele’s Sunday in Charlotte aside, he doesn’t have any. Sharp minds will need a longer number on Xander to turn him into a popular play. Schauffele has eight top 10s this season. As much as that is a reason to bet him, it is an even stronger reason to stay away. At twice his odds, Bryson DeChambeau sits at 30-1. This Louisville slugger is the perfect fit for Valhalla’s rain-soaked setting.
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Similar to his Winged Foot win in 2020, I was impressed with his sixth-place finish at Augusta. Much more of a cerebral course, DeChambeau dialed it in down Magnolia Lane. Combined with a fourth-place finish at Oak Hill a year ago, I believe he has the skills to show Scottie something special. On Monday of PGA week, I’m grabbing Bryson at any number at 30-1 or better. Length will be the ultimate weapon at Valhalla. My outright card will feature a few more, but at the beginning of the week, this value is too good to pass up!
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com